Tiangong-1 space station to crash back to Earth in 2017

Five years ago, the Chinese space authorities launched the 8.5-tonne Tiangong-1 space station. Translating as “Heavenly Palace”, the originally manned module completed its mission in March this year, but has been left in space unmanned and drifting aimlessly, leading some experts to speculate that the government had lost control of Tiangong-1.

That’s either been confirmed or debunked, depending on how tightly you define “control”. Speaking at a Gobi Desert satellite launch centre last week, the deputy director of China’s manned space engineering office, Wu Ping, shed some light on what happens to Tiangong-1 now that it had “comprehensively fulfilled its historical mission.”

“Based on our calculation and analysis, most parts of the space lab will burn up during falling,” she said, claiming that the satellite would fall into Earth’s atmosphere in the second half of 2017.

Speaking to The Guardian

, Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell doesn’t appear too reassured by the announcement. “You really can’t steer these things. Even a couple of days before it re-enters we probably won’t know better than six or seven hours, plus or minus, when it’s going to come down. Not knowing when it’s going to come down translates as not knowing where it’s going to come down.”

While it’s true that some elements of the 8.5-tonne space station will burn up on re-entry as Wu Ping suggested, McDowell suspects that some elements – such as rocket engines – are simply too dense to do so, and there could well be lumps of around 100kg landing unexpectedly somewhere on Earth.

Time will tell who is right on this one, although Wu Ping did promise to update the world as and when its predictions change. “If necessary, China will release a forecast of its falling and report it internationally,” she said.

Image: Beth Scupham used under Creative Commons